Specter Pulls the Rug Out from Under Almost Everyone

What a difference a day makes!

Toomey's chances of beating Specter in a head-to-head match-up just went from 100% to ZERO. All because Specter changed parties.

There was no way for Specter to beat Toomey among the increasingly conservative base, and no way for Toomey to win in a general election.

There was little hope among the Dems to defeat Specter (R) in the General. The only Big Name that could defeat him was Rendell himself. Most of the likely Dem candidates didn't want in unless they were sure to face Toomey. Sestak waited too long (see below). Now, the Dems aren't likely to challenge Specter (D) because he has the backing of Rendell and Obama (if he stops filibusters).

Sestak's the funniest and saddest story. Ever since he violated his campaign promises and voted to give Bush a blank check in Iraq, he lost the support of the hard-core liberals that worked the hardest for his 2006 campaign. He chaffed at the constant criticism (Admirals aren't used to being questioned) and even threatened not to run again. Being accountable to the people, and not having his ego stroked, seemed too much to bear. Plan A of being a US Congressman wasn't going to cut it.

Plan B emerged almost immediately: Hillary.
Sestak worked his ass off traveling around for Hillary in 2007. The obvious reason was to get an appointment and not have to earn our votes every two years.

In 2007, he COMPLETELY ABANDONED the people that got him elected when he refused to lift a finger to help our county council race. Election day 2007 found him NOT at the PA polls promoting his local ticket, but rather in New Hampshire campaigning for Hillary.

(Clinton Launches Assault on Obama's Foreign Policy Experience)
Sestak raised his Hillary profile when on March 6th, 2008 he (in)famously sat with Hillary and other former military as Hillary declared herself and McCain ready, and Obama not ready. Slamming your own party candidate while elevating the opposing party is the kind of classless move that cost Hillary the election, and Joe was right by her side.

Plan C: Kiss Obama's ass
As soon as Hillary lost, Joe immediately jumped on the Obama wagon faster than you can switch from war with Eastasia to Eurasia. Obama won. Joe kept his seat and was stuck with us another term.

Plan D: Run for Senate
Joe's been raising tons of cash and being very coy in his denials of a Senate run. He spent hardly anything to crush Craig Williams, all the while sending out desperate donation requests. I don't recall seeing a single TV ad for Sestak in 2008. For what did he need all that money? His next ambition: Senate.
The problem was that Specter was running, not retiring. Enter Toomey and conservative anger to unseat Specter. Sestak hopes increased with his bank account ($3.5 million) equally the total of the likely Dem candidates.
Joe's a hard worker, part bulldozer part bulldog when it comes to totally dominating a campaign. However, that's part of his problem. He's a piss-poor strategist. His first victory was born more of circumstance and forcefulness (and a desire to boot Weldon) overcoming his many missteps, rather than any actual political skill. His 2006 win would have been slightly easier if he hadn't ignored months of sound advice.

Now that Specter is in the Dem column, Sestak is completely screwed, yet he can't fully comprehend it. On MSNBC he was still playing coy like he might run. He didn't have enough balls to run against the lesser unknown and lesser funded Dem primary field. Why should anyone expect him to challenge a Rendell/Obama backed Specter (with $6 million in the bank)? After he screwed Obama for Hillary last year, Obama's not going to back him. Besides, Sestak is irrelevant in a big Dem Congress and Specter is essential to a 60-Dem Senate.

Did Specter Just Commit Political Suicide?

Arlen Specter has survived a number of otherwise fatal wounds during his career. From his "magic bullet" theory to his attack-dog role against Anita Hill to rolling over and selling out for the Bush Administration, Specter has gone from foolish to vicious to irrelevant.

However, this week, Specter may have dealt himself a fatal blow. In return for his vote on the Employee Free Choice Act (card-check), the Pennsylvania unions offered to back Specter in his expected 2010 Primary fight against expected challenger: Pat Toomey. Specter rejected that offer with his announcement that he would not support the EFCA pro-union bill.

Flash back to 2004, Toomey gave Specter the fight of his life and Specter managed to win by only 2%. Much of this margin was on the strength of Dem/Ind voters switching to Republican to help Specter in the primary. This was based on their (shortsighted) fear that a Toomey primary victory could lead to a Senator Toomey, rather than the likelihood that Pennsylvania would reject Toomey and give us a Dem senator.

Flash forward to 2010, many moderate Republicans and Independents switched to Dem in 2008 to vote for Obama vs Hillary. Therefore, the remaining GOP registration base is far more lopsided with the right-wingers, neocons, Palin-worshipers, gun nuts and religious conservatives that dislike Specter and consider Toomey a GOP wet-dream.

There is NO WAY that Specter can get all the moderates that switched to Dem in 2008 to switch back to GOP to help him. Add to that, a hotly contested Dem Primary for Governor to keep Dems registered. Finally add in that this week he alienated the Unions who won't help him party-switch voters.

If the Unions are smart (for a change) they will realize that their fortunes and well-being don't lie in a washed-up political shell of a man like Specter in the minority party (no chairmanships). The Unions need to go "all-in" for the Democratic ticket. Toomey will be easier to beat than Specter in the General Election. The best strategy is to let Specter lose the Primary and let the GOP cut it's own throat, rather than expend Union resources to support Specter.

The ONLY possible rationale for Specter was if he cut a deal on the Union Bill in hopes of avoiding a primary fight. This is a typically Republican short-sighted strategy and a another typical Specter sellout.

First, the far-right GOP can't be trusted to hold a promise when Specter still has another year of votes to go.
Second, the Unions will leave Specter swinging in the wind come the Primary.
Third, if Specter survives the Primary, the Unions will crucify him for his anti-Union vote with the Dem voters.
Finally, Pennsylvanians are ready for some new blood and the young voters aren't interested in an octogenarian senator in 2010.

Did Specter commit political suicide this week? Let's hope.

UPDATE the latest Quinnipiac University poll (which I didn't see before my blog analysis) shows Specter trailing Toomey by 14 points in a match-up. This is despite Toomey having a significantly lower name recognition. My conclusion: the poll shows a strong anybody but Arlen sentiment.