Arlen Specter has survived a number of otherwise fatal wounds during his career. From his "magic bullet" theory to his attack-dog role against Anita Hill to rolling over and selling out for the Bush Administration, Specter has gone from foolish to vicious to irrelevant.
However, this week, Specter may have dealt himself a fatal blow. In return for his vote on the Employee Free Choice Act (card-check), the Pennsylvania unions offered to back Specter in his expected 2010 Primary fight against expected challenger: Pat Toomey. Specter rejected that offer with his announcement that he would not support the EFCA pro-union bill.
Flash back to 2004, Toomey gave Specter the fight of his life and Specter managed to win by only 2%. Much of this margin was on the strength of Dem/Ind voters switching to Republican to help Specter in the primary. This was based on their (shortsighted) fear that a Toomey primary victory could lead to a Senator Toomey, rather than the likelihood that Pennsylvania would reject Toomey and give us a Dem senator.
Flash forward to 2010, many moderate Republicans and Independents switched to Dem in 2008 to vote for Obama vs Hillary. Therefore, the remaining GOP registration base is far more lopsided with the right-wingers, neocons, Palin-worshipers, gun nuts and religious conservatives that dislike Specter and consider Toomey a GOP wet-dream.
There is NO WAY that Specter can get all the moderates that switched to Dem in 2008 to switch back to GOP to help him. Add to that, a hotly contested Dem Primary for Governor to keep Dems registered. Finally add in that this week he alienated the Unions who won't help him party-switch voters.
If the Unions are smart (for a change) they will realize that their fortunes and well-being don't lie in a washed-up political shell of a man like Specter in the minority party (no chairmanships). The Unions need to go "all-in" for the Democratic ticket. Toomey will be easier to beat than Specter in the General Election. The best strategy is to let Specter lose the Primary and let the GOP cut it's own throat, rather than expend Union resources to support Specter.
The ONLY possible rationale for Specter was if he cut a deal on the Union Bill in hopes of avoiding a primary fight. This is a typically Republican short-sighted strategy and a another typical Specter sellout.
First, the far-right GOP can't be trusted to hold a promise when Specter still has another year of votes to go.
Second, the Unions will leave Specter swinging in the wind come the Primary.
Third, if Specter survives the Primary, the Unions will crucify him for his anti-Union vote with the Dem voters.
Finally, Pennsylvanians are ready for some new blood and the young voters aren't interested in an octogenarian senator in 2010.
Did Specter commit political suicide this week? Let's hope.
UPDATE the latest Quinnipiac University poll (which I didn't see before my blog analysis) shows Specter trailing Toomey by 14 points in a match-up. This is despite Toomey having a significantly lower name recognition. My conclusion: the poll shows a strong anybody but Arlen sentiment.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Is Montco's Ex-DA DOA?
A little story from our neighbor to the north, Montgomery County.
Just like Delco has it's crybabies and sore losers, like Gil Spencer, Montco has former DA Bruce Castor.
Some background and comparison: Delco's GOP solidified their political power 30 years ago when they changed the county charter to remove the guarantee of minority party participation. Since then, the 5-member Delco County Council has been all-GOP and votes almost exclusively in 5-0 decisions that seem to have been made behind closed doors (and likely by GOP party bosses pulling the strings). The nepotism and corruption in Delco are infamous throughout the state.
In Montco, their County board has 3 members, with minority representation (often 2-Rep and 1-Dem). In 2007, something interesting happened...
Bruce Castor left his popular DA position to run for County Council. The result was Castor getting the most votes, then Chris Matthews' brother (Rep) and then Joe Hoeffel getting the most Dem votes.
But here's where it got interesting: it turned out that Matthews and Castor hated each other, and Hoeffel was able to work with Matthews, so Castor wound up being the odd-man out. After crying publicly about what a traitor Matthews was, Castor found himself on the perpetual losing end of 2-1 votes and the loss of whatever power he hoped to have, and basically left pouting in his office with nothing to do.
Matthews' decision to work in a bi-partisan manner with Hoeffel (rather than ignore the Democrats) makes sense because the Dems actually became the majority party in Montco.
Now, ex-DA Castor finds himself in some legal hot water. Testifying in the Vince Fumo trial, the tables got turned on him when he admitted conducting political campaign activities from his taxpayer funded government job/office and work email. (This was Castor's losing 2004 campaign against Tom Corbett.) There also seems to be some funny business with Christian Marrone, a former assistant district attorney who had worked on Castor's campaign and some timing on when he got hired/fired based on what was happening in the campaign.
Joe Hoeffel asked the current Montco DA to investigate Castor's admissions under oath. However, the current DA appears to be a protege of Castor, and will likely drag her heels on this. Given the court testimony, the State could step in if the DA doesn't.
I think the coroner should be able to sign the death certificate for Castor's political future.
----
Here in Delco for 2009, we have two of the five Council seats up for election. This is an opportunity to get some Dems on the Council since Obama won 60% of the county, and the GOP opposed him and are out-of-touch with the majority Delco voters.
Just like Delco has it's crybabies and sore losers, like Gil Spencer, Montco has former DA Bruce Castor.
Some background and comparison: Delco's GOP solidified their political power 30 years ago when they changed the county charter to remove the guarantee of minority party participation. Since then, the 5-member Delco County Council has been all-GOP and votes almost exclusively in 5-0 decisions that seem to have been made behind closed doors (and likely by GOP party bosses pulling the strings). The nepotism and corruption in Delco are infamous throughout the state.
In Montco, their County board has 3 members, with minority representation (often 2-Rep and 1-Dem). In 2007, something interesting happened...
Bruce Castor left his popular DA position to run for County Council. The result was Castor getting the most votes, then Chris Matthews' brother (Rep) and then Joe Hoeffel getting the most Dem votes.
But here's where it got interesting: it turned out that Matthews and Castor hated each other, and Hoeffel was able to work with Matthews, so Castor wound up being the odd-man out. After crying publicly about what a traitor Matthews was, Castor found himself on the perpetual losing end of 2-1 votes and the loss of whatever power he hoped to have, and basically left pouting in his office with nothing to do.
Matthews' decision to work in a bi-partisan manner with Hoeffel (rather than ignore the Democrats) makes sense because the Dems actually became the majority party in Montco.
Now, ex-DA Castor finds himself in some legal hot water. Testifying in the Vince Fumo trial, the tables got turned on him when he admitted conducting political campaign activities from his taxpayer funded government job/office and work email. (This was Castor's losing 2004 campaign against Tom Corbett.) There also seems to be some funny business with Christian Marrone, a former assistant district attorney who had worked on Castor's campaign and some timing on when he got hired/fired based on what was happening in the campaign.
Joe Hoeffel asked the current Montco DA to investigate Castor's admissions under oath. However, the current DA appears to be a protege of Castor, and will likely drag her heels on this. Given the court testimony, the State could step in if the DA doesn't.
I think the coroner should be able to sign the death certificate for Castor's political future.
----
Here in Delco for 2009, we have two of the five Council seats up for election. This is an opportunity to get some Dems on the Council since Obama won 60% of the county, and the GOP opposed him and are out-of-touch with the majority Delco voters.
Monday, January 26, 2009
Obama's First Week and the Crying GOP
What a great week is had been. It's like a giant albatross has been lifted from the collective citizenry of America.
The failed policies and philosophies of Bush are falling like dominoes, along with the foolish neocons that supported at promoted them. From the National media to the local Delco Times, the conservatives are pouting and whining like school children, unable to comprehend the fundamental change and awakening taking place around them.
At the national level, Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, Bill Kristol and others are delusional in their claims of success in Iraq and of conservative ideas in general, despite their overwhelming rejection in November, and current approval of their dismantling by Obama. Rush "American Last" Limbaugh is openly clamoring for Obama's failure.
At the local level, clueless fools like Gil Spencer and his ragtag bunch of ignorant followers are grasping at straws, misinformation, distortions and childishness in feeble attempts to knock Obama.
Some examples:
- pretending like there is no safe place to house Gitmo detainees (despite all the thousands of more dangerous prisoners already housed in US Federal prisons).
- criticizing Obama's missile strike in Pakistan as a continuation of Bush's policy (when in fact Bush was following the policy Obama put forth on the campaign trail)
- Claiming that that water boarding has never been considered a war crime (and this assertion was from a Spencer fanboy that claims to be a Delco lawyer). Spencer refused to post any counter-proof to this ridiculous position, which is easily found: Waterboarding Used to be a War Crime
Of course, such minimal research would be expected from an actual journalist, rather than a tired hack of a columnist like Gil.
- quoting Dick Morris on nonsense like Obama is going to bring about socialism (nothing like a defrocked political consultant that got caught with a toe-sucking prostitute to give your arguments credibility, even though he's right less often than a stopped clock).
- claiming that Dick Cheney is the most pro-gay VP in history (is it because he sodomized Uncle Sam?)
- racist postings about whether Obama cares about de-ghetto-ing the urban communities (ie blacks and their hip-hop culture are bad and does Obama want to make them less black)
Quote: "An African American columnist asks if Barack Obama can change the hip-hop culture that infects and ghetto-izes poor urban communities today.
We don't know. Does he really want to?
This is the level to which Gil and his ilk have stooped. Gil is an old white guy in the mold of Archie Bunker (but without the charm or conscience) who is rebelling against the multi-cultural blend that makes America truly great. Gil is happy to kick Muslims, Arabs, etc. off of planes if they pray or exhibit any behaviors of their culture because some ignorant, xenophobic or racist passengers feel discomforted. He's fine with torture, US run secret prisons, and holding people without trail. He's quick to trot out the sexual orientation of gay Dem Congressmen when he disagrees with their political choices, as though the two are related and gays are ill-suited for public service.
Gil's an arm-chair warrior that happily cheers on as young men (and innocent civilians) are killed in a war based on lies that was managed incompetently.
Why single out Gil? Because he is shill for the local GOP and represents them and their views as the lead opinion columnist for the county's main local paper.
This year, there will be an election for two of the five Delco County Council seats. All of the current all GOP members and any likely GOP candidates were all-in when McCain and Palin visited the Delco courthouse and acted like Palin was the Second-coming. Now, Alaska may be bigger than Texas, but the population is about the size of Delco's but with less infrastructure (not even public sewer system). A local Delco Council members is probably more qualified to run the country, and a local ward commission has MORE responsibility than Palin had as mayor. Yet, Gil and he local GOP considered her "Presidential" quality and likes her "ideas". What does that say about Delco?
Delaware County voters rejected McCain/Palin and picked Obama/Biden 60%-40%. Yet, somehow the Delco Times promotes Gil Spencer as he shills for the local out-of-touch GOP and plays to a diminishing audience of local rednecks and bigots.
In this era of newspapers going under, it's long past time that the Delco Times got a lead columnist that represents the view of the Delco majority and the future, instead of a horse's ass like Gil Spencer that should be on his way to the glue factory.
The failed policies and philosophies of Bush are falling like dominoes, along with the foolish neocons that supported at promoted them. From the National media to the local Delco Times, the conservatives are pouting and whining like school children, unable to comprehend the fundamental change and awakening taking place around them.
At the national level, Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, Bill Kristol and others are delusional in their claims of success in Iraq and of conservative ideas in general, despite their overwhelming rejection in November, and current approval of their dismantling by Obama. Rush "American Last" Limbaugh is openly clamoring for Obama's failure.
At the local level, clueless fools like Gil Spencer and his ragtag bunch of ignorant followers are grasping at straws, misinformation, distortions and childishness in feeble attempts to knock Obama.
Some examples:
- pretending like there is no safe place to house Gitmo detainees (despite all the thousands of more dangerous prisoners already housed in US Federal prisons).
- criticizing Obama's missile strike in Pakistan as a continuation of Bush's policy (when in fact Bush was following the policy Obama put forth on the campaign trail)
- Claiming that that water boarding has never been considered a war crime (and this assertion was from a Spencer fanboy that claims to be a Delco lawyer). Spencer refused to post any counter-proof to this ridiculous position, which is easily found: Waterboarding Used to be a War Crime
Of course, such minimal research would be expected from an actual journalist, rather than a tired hack of a columnist like Gil.
- quoting Dick Morris on nonsense like Obama is going to bring about socialism (nothing like a defrocked political consultant that got caught with a toe-sucking prostitute to give your arguments credibility, even though he's right less often than a stopped clock).
- claiming that Dick Cheney is the most pro-gay VP in history (is it because he sodomized Uncle Sam?)
- racist postings about whether Obama cares about de-ghetto-ing the urban communities (ie blacks and their hip-hop culture are bad and does Obama want to make them less black)
Quote: "An African American columnist asks if Barack Obama can change the hip-hop culture that infects and ghetto-izes poor urban communities today.
We don't know. Does he really want to?
This is the level to which Gil and his ilk have stooped. Gil is an old white guy in the mold of Archie Bunker (but without the charm or conscience) who is rebelling against the multi-cultural blend that makes America truly great. Gil is happy to kick Muslims, Arabs, etc. off of planes if they pray or exhibit any behaviors of their culture because some ignorant, xenophobic or racist passengers feel discomforted. He's fine with torture, US run secret prisons, and holding people without trail. He's quick to trot out the sexual orientation of gay Dem Congressmen when he disagrees with their political choices, as though the two are related and gays are ill-suited for public service.
Gil's an arm-chair warrior that happily cheers on as young men (and innocent civilians) are killed in a war based on lies that was managed incompetently.
Why single out Gil? Because he is shill for the local GOP and represents them and their views as the lead opinion columnist for the county's main local paper.
This year, there will be an election for two of the five Delco County Council seats. All of the current all GOP members and any likely GOP candidates were all-in when McCain and Palin visited the Delco courthouse and acted like Palin was the Second-coming. Now, Alaska may be bigger than Texas, but the population is about the size of Delco's but with less infrastructure (not even public sewer system). A local Delco Council members is probably more qualified to run the country, and a local ward commission has MORE responsibility than Palin had as mayor. Yet, Gil and he local GOP considered her "Presidential" quality and likes her "ideas". What does that say about Delco?
Delaware County voters rejected McCain/Palin and picked Obama/Biden 60%-40%. Yet, somehow the Delco Times promotes Gil Spencer as he shills for the local out-of-touch GOP and plays to a diminishing audience of local rednecks and bigots.
In this era of newspapers going under, it's long past time that the Delco Times got a lead columnist that represents the view of the Delco majority and the future, instead of a horse's ass like Gil Spencer that should be on his way to the glue factory.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Why Gil Spencer Can Go Fuck Himself
Gil Spencer recently posted what I considered to be a final straw of gay bashing on his blog. In a posting, he went after Congressman Barney Frank on the recent financial crisis. However, Spencer devoted 1/3 of his posting to a 20-year old gay-sex story/scandal involving Frank's boyfriend at the time.
I called him on it, as it had nothing to do with the financial crisis, as Spencer is clearly pursuing an anti-gay agenda. There is NO other acceptable excuse to conflate the two stories.
I called him on it TWICE in his own blog. Unsatisfied with Spencer's response, I contacted his editor. Spencer, being the total pussy that he is, whined and cried, and then banned me from his blog and "explained" my banning with his own one-sided summary, that left out the key details.
Spencer then has the audacity (not of hope) to bar me until he gets an apology from me. Well, he can go fuck himself. He clearly prefers the racists and bigots that his blog attracts like flies to shit.
Gil Spencer's clearly bigoted comments, reprinted here (lest he delete/hide the evidence):
Frank, as a powerful member of the House Financial Services Committee, bears as much responsibility as any politician in Washington for this mess.
But he's showing even less shame about it than when his boyfriend, Steve Gobie, got caught running a gay prostitution ring out of his Washington D.C. apartment 20 years ago.
Back then Frank excused his behavior as naive. He said he was just trying to help Gobie.
"I thought I was going to be a liberal who got involved directly with an individual who needed help, that I had an individual who was going to get help and he took me."
No doubt when you answer an ad from a gay newspaper that says: "Exceptionally good-looking, personable, muscular athlete is available. Hot bottom plus large endowment equals a good time," you're looking to "HELP" someone.
Right. That story is 20 years old. And Barney Frank has changed. He's gotten even MORE shameless.
No wonder the word "liberal" has become an epithet.
Spencer tries to equate gay and liberal and epithet to bash and demean. Think of the way gays were viewed 20 years ago. Reagan was still in office and the AIDS crisis was ignored while people died. The religious right spread misinformation and treated it like a punishment from God. This is the era in which Gil Spencer's remarks would be welcomed.
I called him on it, as it had nothing to do with the financial crisis, as Spencer is clearly pursuing an anti-gay agenda. There is NO other acceptable excuse to conflate the two stories.
I called him on it TWICE in his own blog. Unsatisfied with Spencer's response, I contacted his editor. Spencer, being the total pussy that he is, whined and cried, and then banned me from his blog and "explained" my banning with his own one-sided summary, that left out the key details.
Spencer then has the audacity (not of hope) to bar me until he gets an apology from me. Well, he can go fuck himself. He clearly prefers the racists and bigots that his blog attracts like flies to shit.
Gil Spencer's clearly bigoted comments, reprinted here (lest he delete/hide the evidence):
Frank, as a powerful member of the House Financial Services Committee, bears as much responsibility as any politician in Washington for this mess.
But he's showing even less shame about it than when his boyfriend, Steve Gobie, got caught running a gay prostitution ring out of his Washington D.C. apartment 20 years ago.
Back then Frank excused his behavior as naive. He said he was just trying to help Gobie.
"I thought I was going to be a liberal who got involved directly with an individual who needed help, that I had an individual who was going to get help and he took me."
No doubt when you answer an ad from a gay newspaper that says: "Exceptionally good-looking, personable, muscular athlete is available. Hot bottom plus large endowment equals a good time," you're looking to "HELP" someone.
Right. That story is 20 years old. And Barney Frank has changed. He's gotten even MORE shameless.
No wonder the word "liberal" has become an epithet.
Spencer tries to equate gay and liberal and epithet to bash and demean. Think of the way gays were viewed 20 years ago. Reagan was still in office and the AIDS crisis was ignored while people died. The religious right spread misinformation and treated it like a punishment from God. This is the era in which Gil Spencer's remarks would be welcomed.
Sunday, September 7, 2008
Sarah Plain and TallPalin and Small-minded
Since Sarah Palin hit the big stage, almost everyday seems to reveal new information about her and her far right-wing social conservative ideology and overall unfitness to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency.
God, Guns and Gays
Palin is an extreme religious conservative. I believe that a person's religious beliefs should not be a barrier to office, under the ONE CONDITION that he/she does not desire to impose his/her religious beliefs one others through the government. Even as mayor of her tiny town, ran on a campaign based on her religion, and once on office Palin attempted to ban books and fire the town librarian. She cannot be trusted to separate Church and State, which is what supporters like Dobson are counting upon.
When she ran for mayor against the former mayor, John Stein, she campaign with "We will have our first Christian mayor.". Stein was a Lutheran, so Palin clearly brought Antisemitism into her campaign strategy. (I wonder if Joe Lieberman is aware of this?)
She has stated her believe that the Iraq War is part of God's plan. She also claims that God wants a $30 billion gas pipeline in Alaska.
She is a lifelong N.R.A. member and aligned with their dangerous agenda. She likes shooting wolves using aerial hunting, too.
She sought to deny health benefits to same-sex-couple state workers. "Gov. Sarah Palin's church is promoting a conference that promises to convert gays into heterosexuals through the power of prayer.". It not hard to realize that if elected she will fight to continue the ban on gays in the military.
War on Science
Like most ideologues, Palin rejected established science in favor of her ideology in forming public policy. She refuses to accept that global warming has a man-made component. She refuses to recognize the need to put polar bears on the endangered species list. She wants Creationism taught in the schools next to evolution, as though the two were equivalent theories.
God, Guns and Gays
Palin is an extreme religious conservative. I believe that a person's religious beliefs should not be a barrier to office, under the ONE CONDITION that he/she does not desire to impose his/her religious beliefs one others through the government. Even as mayor of her tiny town, ran on a campaign based on her religion, and once on office Palin attempted to ban books and fire the town librarian. She cannot be trusted to separate Church and State, which is what supporters like Dobson are counting upon.
When she ran for mayor against the former mayor, John Stein, she campaign with "We will have our first Christian mayor.". Stein was a Lutheran, so Palin clearly brought Antisemitism into her campaign strategy. (I wonder if Joe Lieberman is aware of this?)
She has stated her believe that the Iraq War is part of God's plan. She also claims that God wants a $30 billion gas pipeline in Alaska.
She is a lifelong N.R.A. member and aligned with their dangerous agenda. She likes shooting wolves using aerial hunting, too.
She sought to deny health benefits to same-sex-couple state workers. "Gov. Sarah Palin's church is promoting a conference that promises to convert gays into heterosexuals through the power of prayer.". It not hard to realize that if elected she will fight to continue the ban on gays in the military.
War on Science
Like most ideologues, Palin rejected established science in favor of her ideology in forming public policy. She refuses to accept that global warming has a man-made component. She refuses to recognize the need to put polar bears on the endangered species list. She wants Creationism taught in the schools next to evolution, as though the two were equivalent theories.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Sarah Palin: Repairing the Cracks in the Glass Ceiling
Over the long weekend, I've been trying to understand McCain's choice of Sarah Palin, and it becomes more mysterious with each revelation about her. I've come to several conclusions, which I may still revamp if the drip-drip-drip continues.
Obviously, Palin was a surrender by McCain to the radical, regressive, social conservatives and purveyors of Medieval science. She's a gun-toting, pro-life, Creationist that doesn't believe in protecting bears, global warming or teaching sex education. She seems like Mike Huckabee on estrogen as McCain appears to have found Jame Dobson's G-spot.
The Romney and Pawlenty supporters are rightly angry, and one can only wonder what sacrifices McCain will have to make at their altars.
However, the choice is so disastrous that I'm left with several possibilities:
1) That McCain was much more pissed at Bush and the Republican Party than anyone realized when he flirted with a run as Kerry's VP in 2004. McCain appears to be running a campaign that will not only lead to Obama's victory and the undoing of the Bush legacy, but to the complete evisceration of the Republican Party. The GOP seems to be on the verge of self-destruction.
2) McCain's too old-school to believe a woman should ever be Commander in Chief, and Hillary's candidacy got too close for comfort. By introducing Palin as the peak of feminine political achievement, he either intended to make Hillary's head explode (eliminating her), or to repair the cracks in the glass ceiling while adding a layer of shatterproof Plexiglas.
3) McCain wanted to demonstrate his support for the 2nd Amendment by shooting himself in the foot.
Obviously, Palin was a surrender by McCain to the radical, regressive, social conservatives and purveyors of Medieval science. She's a gun-toting, pro-life, Creationist that doesn't believe in protecting bears, global warming or teaching sex education. She seems like Mike Huckabee on estrogen as McCain appears to have found Jame Dobson's G-spot.
The Romney and Pawlenty supporters are rightly angry, and one can only wonder what sacrifices McCain will have to make at their altars.
However, the choice is so disastrous that I'm left with several possibilities:
1) That McCain was much more pissed at Bush and the Republican Party than anyone realized when he flirted with a run as Kerry's VP in 2004. McCain appears to be running a campaign that will not only lead to Obama's victory and the undoing of the Bush legacy, but to the complete evisceration of the Republican Party. The GOP seems to be on the verge of self-destruction.
2) McCain's too old-school to believe a woman should ever be Commander in Chief, and Hillary's candidacy got too close for comfort. By introducing Palin as the peak of feminine political achievement, he either intended to make Hillary's head explode (eliminating her), or to repair the cracks in the glass ceiling while adding a layer of shatterproof Plexiglas.
3) McCain wanted to demonstrate his support for the 2nd Amendment by shooting himself in the foot.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Obama vs McCain InTrade Market
The polling data that gets released daily, and reported by the media, often glosses over sample size, the dates over which the poll was taken, registered vs likely voters (and under-counting the new voters), and finally: failing to relate this to the Electoral College.
Despite the apparent/deceptive closeness in the polls, the odds are running about 60/40 in Obama's favor as the the likelihood he will beat McCain. The trading market represents a consensus opinion of where traders see the election going and the "stock value" of each candidate.
These trading markets (while not always perfect predictors) do represent a "collective wisdom" of experts and amateurs and have made some good predictions in the past, that were missed by other techniques.
BTW, GOP VP odds running about 70/20 for Romney vs Pawlenty
Here's the latest Presidential odds (this is link to InTrade, so it should stay up to date).
Obama:
McCain
Despite the apparent/deceptive closeness in the polls, the odds are running about 60/40 in Obama's favor as the the likelihood he will beat McCain. The trading market represents a consensus opinion of where traders see the election going and the "stock value" of each candidate.
These trading markets (while not always perfect predictors) do represent a "collective wisdom" of experts and amateurs and have made some good predictions in the past, that were missed by other techniques.
BTW, GOP VP odds running about 70/20 for Romney vs Pawlenty
Here's the latest Presidential odds (this is link to InTrade, so it should stay up to date).
Obama:
McCain
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