Did Specter Just Commit Political Suicide?

Arlen Specter has survived a number of otherwise fatal wounds during his career. From his "magic bullet" theory to his attack-dog role against Anita Hill to rolling over and selling out for the Bush Administration, Specter has gone from foolish to vicious to irrelevant.

However, this week, Specter may have dealt himself a fatal blow. In return for his vote on the Employee Free Choice Act (card-check), the Pennsylvania unions offered to back Specter in his expected 2010 Primary fight against expected challenger: Pat Toomey. Specter rejected that offer with his announcement that he would not support the EFCA pro-union bill.

Flash back to 2004, Toomey gave Specter the fight of his life and Specter managed to win by only 2%. Much of this margin was on the strength of Dem/Ind voters switching to Republican to help Specter in the primary. This was based on their (shortsighted) fear that a Toomey primary victory could lead to a Senator Toomey, rather than the likelihood that Pennsylvania would reject Toomey and give us a Dem senator.

Flash forward to 2010, many moderate Republicans and Independents switched to Dem in 2008 to vote for Obama vs Hillary. Therefore, the remaining GOP registration base is far more lopsided with the right-wingers, neocons, Palin-worshipers, gun nuts and religious conservatives that dislike Specter and consider Toomey a GOP wet-dream.

There is NO WAY that Specter can get all the moderates that switched to Dem in 2008 to switch back to GOP to help him. Add to that, a hotly contested Dem Primary for Governor to keep Dems registered. Finally add in that this week he alienated the Unions who won't help him party-switch voters.

If the Unions are smart (for a change) they will realize that their fortunes and well-being don't lie in a washed-up political shell of a man like Specter in the minority party (no chairmanships). The Unions need to go "all-in" for the Democratic ticket. Toomey will be easier to beat than Specter in the General Election. The best strategy is to let Specter lose the Primary and let the GOP cut it's own throat, rather than expend Union resources to support Specter.

The ONLY possible rationale for Specter was if he cut a deal on the Union Bill in hopes of avoiding a primary fight. This is a typically Republican short-sighted strategy and a another typical Specter sellout.

First, the far-right GOP can't be trusted to hold a promise when Specter still has another year of votes to go.
Second, the Unions will leave Specter swinging in the wind come the Primary.
Third, if Specter survives the Primary, the Unions will crucify him for his anti-Union vote with the Dem voters.
Finally, Pennsylvanians are ready for some new blood and the young voters aren't interested in an octogenarian senator in 2010.

Did Specter commit political suicide this week? Let's hope.

UPDATE the latest Quinnipiac University poll (which I didn't see before my blog analysis) shows Specter trailing Toomey by 14 points in a match-up. This is despite Toomey having a significantly lower name recognition. My conclusion: the poll shows a strong anybody but Arlen sentiment.