Obama vs McCain InTrade Market

The polling data that gets released daily, and reported by the media, often glosses over sample size, the dates over which the poll was taken, registered vs likely voters (and under-counting the new voters), and finally: failing to relate this to the Electoral College.

Despite the apparent/deceptive closeness in the polls, the odds are running about 60/40 in Obama's favor as the the likelihood he will beat McCain. The trading market represents a consensus opinion of where traders see the election going and the "stock value" of each candidate.

These trading markets (while not always perfect predictors) do represent a "collective wisdom" of experts and amateurs and have made some good predictions in the past, that were missed by other techniques.

BTW, GOP VP odds running about 70/20 for Romney vs Pawlenty

Here's the latest Presidential odds (this is link to InTrade, so it should stay up to date).

Obama:



McCain